We’ll get to our weekend preview in a second, but first, I want to re-rank the remaining eight teams.
The obvious way to do that? Either via Super Bowl percentages in our Playoff Simulator or BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds. Both offer unbiased looks at what the future might hold, and neither has much faith in the injury-plagued 49ers.
A less local way to rank the remaining eight teams? By some historical facts that relate to their Super Bowl chances. In order of most to least convincing:
- In three tries as a top seed so far, the No. 1 Seahawks have never missed the Super Bowl (and never made it as any other seed). Also, half of the past eight Super Bowl teams were No. 1 seeds.
- The Rams‘ unstoppable offense led the league in points scored, yards gained and first downs. The last team to accomplish all three, the 2022 Chiefs, won the Super Bowl.
- Since 2020, the Bills are 8-0 in the postseason against any team without Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow. Their disguise-heavy defense will face Bo Nix and, with a win, would then face one of the league’s youngest starting QBs, either C.J. Stroud or Drake Maye.
- The Texans led the NFL in both point differential and turnover margin in this season’s fourth quarters. The most recent teams to accomplish that combo won the Super Bowl (2020 Buccaneers and 2009 Saints).
- The Patriots were just the 12th team in league history to finish undefeated on the road. Eight of the previous 11 teams to accomplish that reached the Super Bowl.
- Every time the Broncos have started 10-2, they’ve made the Super Bowl (1989, 1997, 2013 and 2015), winning twice. Guess their record through 12 games this season?
- History is on the side of the 49ers, even when they’re hurt. This year, they were the first team since their own 1988 edition to open a season with road wins by two different starting quarterbacks (Brock Purdy and Mac Jones). Joe Montana and Steve Young’s Niners won the Super Bowl that year.
- The Bears? Anything is possible for a clutch quarterback on a team that just scored 25 points in the fourth quarter of a playoff game (that hasn’t happened this century).
That all said, history doesn’t play these games.
Next: The Athletic’s reporters explain how the teams they cover can win this weekend, plus Ted Nguyen breaks down a crucial matchup in Denver.
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How each NFL team wins divisional round
A brutal dose of reality: After Sunday, it’ll be over 230 days until more than two NFL games are played in a weekend.
The good news? We’ve got an amazing slate. To prep, I went directly to The Athletic’s invaluable reporters, asking how their respective teams might win this weekend. Here’s what they told me, with related stories linked:
Bills at Broncos (-1)
Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
The Bills win if: “They help Josh Allen with a more effective run game than what they showed against the Jaguars. They also need to get pressure on Bo Nix with their defensive tackles.” — Joe Buscaglia
The Broncos win if: “They can produce consistently on the ground against Buffalo’s 30th-ranked rush defense. Denver must exploit the Bills’ weakness consistently enough to stay in manageable second- and third-down situations that allow Sean Payton to access a wider swath of his playbook.” — Nick Kosmider, who co-authored our full game preview.
Over to Ted Nguyen for a matchup to watch in Denver.
What Ted’s Seeing: Buffalo’s advantage
Aside from Josh Allen’s ability to create off-script plays, there are a few ways the Bills offense matches up favorably against the Broncos defense. Keep an eye on Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid, who could exploit the Broncos linebackers.
The Broncos defense specializes in taking away outside receivers with cornerbacks Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss, and of course, that will be an issue for the Bills. But Buffalo doesn’t rely on their outside receivers winning at a high rate to move the ball.
Instead, the Bills move the ball through their running backs and tight ends. Buffalo ranked fifth in receiving yards to those positions this season, and took advantage of Denver’s linebackers in this matchup last season.
The Broncos have given up the ninth-most yards to tight ends this season, and their linebackers don’t play man coverage at a high level. Even strong safety Talanoa Hufanga, elite in so many areas, is weaker in man coverage.
Buffalo’s tight ends should be a major factor. They combined for seven catches for 101 yards in this matchup last postseason, and while Kincaid has missed several games this year, he’s improved as a player. The Bills should have a similar game plan to last year’s playoff game and target Kincaid often.
For more: I covered key matchups to watch in Seahawks-49ers and Bears-Rams, along with Patriots-Texans and more Broncos-Bills. Back to you, Jacob.
49ers at Seahawks (-7)
Saturday at 8 p.m. on FOX.
The 49ers win if: “They handle Seattle’s running game, like they did against the Falcons, Colts and Eagles this season. Their Week 18 game against the Seahawks was a different story.” — Matt Barrows
They’ll also need: “Christian McCaffrey to get 25 touches. They need him to run the ball — or get short throws to him — to get the Seahawks to not play so deep, which could open opportunities in the passing game.” — Vic Tafur
Seattle wins if: “Sam Darnold protects the ball. Seattle had a top-three offense by points per game, but also finished second in turnovers (28), with a league-high 20 coming from Darnold. Giveaways are all that can stop Seattle from being great. His teammates aren’t worried.” — Michael-Shawn Dugar
Also: Darnold is questionable, but expects to play.
Texans at Patriots (-2.5)
Sunday at 3 p.m. on ABC/ESPN.
The Texans win if: “Their elite defense can harass Drake Maye and get off of the field on third downs, while C.J. Stroud needs to take care of the football.” — Mike Jones
The Patriots win if: “They can protect Maye. The task is tough for an offensive line with two rookies. The Texans defensive line is the best in the league, but if the Patriots can give Maye time, they should be playing in the AFC championship.” — Chad Graff
Rams (-3.5) at Bears
Sunday at 6:30 p.m. on NBC/Peacock.
The Rams win if: “They can avoid a special teams disaster. Special teams issues have arguably cost the Rams three wins this season and nearly did so in the wild-card round, when they allowed a blocked punt in the fourth quarter. The Rams believe that was a personnel issue, but it won’t get easier in a raucous, cold and windy Soldier Field.” — Nate Atkins
The Bears win if: “They can steal a possession. That Rams offense is so potent, and the Bears defense gives up a lot of big plays, so they will need to create a takeaway or turnover on downs to keep up.” — Kevin Fishbain
Also: “The Bears topped the NFL during the regular season in takeaways and had the fewest giveaways, plus were No. 1 in the NFC in rushing offense. Keep an eye on their ability to lean into their late-game magic.” — Dan Wiederer
Extra Points
🎯 One underdog wins this weekend, per Vic Tafur’s playoff picks against the spread. Hint: It’s not the Bears.
⚠️ The Eagles’ problems on offense went beyond fired coordinator Kevin Patullo, as Michael Silver details in his story on what went wrong in Philly.
📑 It seems dangerous for playoff coordinators like Seattle’s Klint Kubiak to also be coaching candidates, as it might cost prep time. Jourdan Rodrigue explains how they balance a loaded schedule.
👀 Hope for Shedeur Sanders? The underlying metrics were awful for the Browns rookie. Jason Lloyd details everything Sanders could fix to remain a starter in the NFL.
▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: How could you not be curious about Mike Tomlin’s final team meeting in Pittsburgh? Also, I promise you won’t regret reading about the pressure of punting.
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