So far in this month—up to 21 November—Indians have spent an average of ₹96,017 crore a day through digital channels, compared with ₹94,385.85 crore in October and ₹89,675.18 crore in September, according to Reserve Bank of India data. The run-rate has risen steadily since August. Last year, the comparable figures were ₹82,578 crore in October and ₹77,572 crore in November.
Average spending during the Diwali week—18-24 October—was at ₹85,228 crore.
Digital payments are widely used as a proxy for on-ground consumption, though rising debt repayments and investment flows through UPI mean the headline numbers capture more than just daily spending.
In October, people paid ₹50,614 crore to debt collection agencies, and bought digital gold for ₹2,290 crore. Meanwhile, nearly 50% of all UPI spends are clubbed together as an undefined category called ‘others’ by the the National Payments Corp. of India (NPCI).
Still, experts believe that the momentum will continue till December and January.
“This is an indication that consumption has definitely picked up,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda. “Typically these transactions would be for consumer goods, for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), durable goods, including automobiles to a certain extent, this is a case of definitely saying that over a period of time, the consumption levels in the country have gone up.”
Spending patterns
That view has been bolstered by category-level data.
Electronics purchases through UPI touched ₹12,175.87 crore in October, up 25% from the same period last year, as per data from NPCI shows. Groceries and supermarket spends, one of the largest categories, were at ₹76,073.21 crore in October, compared with ₹66,408.93 crore in September and ₹58,098.95 crore in October last year. Restaurant payments via UPI hit ₹37,640.5 crore in October, rising 26% year-on-year.
“Based on the digital payment numbers, there definitely has been an upward trend in consumption. There is reason for us to be hopeful that this will carry on for the next couple of months as November, December are typically the wedding season and people spend more money even after the festivals are over,” said Sabnavis.
Industry executives see a similar pattern.
Vishwas Patel, joint managing director of listed fintech Infibeam Avenues Ltd and chairman of Payments Council of India, said there has been “a continuous momentum on digital spending even after October and goes on to show that people are still spending on ground,” aided in part by goods and services tax (GST) cuts and festive purchases.
Much of this momentum is being carried by UPI, whose rise has overshadowed every other instrument. In November, UPI accounted for 94% of digital payments by value, leaving credit, debit and prepaid instruments far behind. Care Ratings notes that credit cards remain strong in e-commerce and high-value purchases, while debit cards and prepaid payment instruments (PPIs) are losing ground to UPI for smaller transactions.
In November 2024, credit cards, debit cards and prepaid instruments had a market share of 7.4% by value, with the share slipping to 5.9% a year later.
Beyond consumption
Not all digital-payment growth stems from consumption. A wave of public offerings is also pushing up transaction values. Data from the National Stock Exchange show that 79 companies have gone public since September.
“Over the last few months several companies have gone public and given that about 60-70% of retail and individual HNI (high net-worth individuals) investments in IPOs (initial public offerings) are through the UPI route, the surge seems justified,” said Parijat Garg, an independent fintech expert.
Spends towards securities brokers and dealers through UPI were ₹66,095.52 crore in October, compared with ₹49,486.58 crore in September and ₹79,010.69 crore in October 2024, as per NPCI data.
These payments accounted for 8% and 7% of all UPI payments by value in October and September, respectively.
From a consumption standpoint, Garg said people are making discretionary spends—eating out and shopping—through UPI, and expects the momentum to hold. “As a whole a pickup in digital payments could be seen as a proxy of a pickup in consumption demand. The last quarter would see spending towards travel, wedding, insurance etc and so this momentum should continue.”
Analysts say UPI’s rapid penetration into tier-two and tier-three cities continues to expand the base of digital transactions. A Care Ratings note from 13 October said UPI transactions grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 49% between FY23 and FY25. “UPI is expected to continue its rapid growth, further solidifying its dominance in India’s digital payments landscape,” it said.