MESA, Ariz. — As Justin Steele recovers from major surgery on his left elbow, the Chicago Cubs have not yet decided whether the All-Star pitcher will start the season on the 60-day injured list. In a sense, the club and the player are working backward from October.
The timeline to return to Chicago’s rotation remains the same, Steele said Sunday: “May/June-ish.” The primary objective, however, is to make sure that Steele is strong enough and sharp enough for a long playoff run.
Steele passed one checkpoint Saturday in Arizona, visiting with Dr. Keith Meister, the surgeon who handled his season-ending procedure last April, and then releasing comeback videos on social media that animated Cubs fans hoping he would return sooner rather than later.
“Full go as far as baseball activities,” Steele said. “No restrictions.”
Practically speaking, that means Steele no longer has regular appointments with Meister, the head team physician for the Texas Rangers and an expert in sports medicine. Steele can now start working on his curveball again, incorporating his entire arsenal into his bullpen sessions and continuing the progressions outlined in his ramp-up program.
“Everything is going well,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “Everything is going just the way we want it to go. Just continue taking next steps and stacking good days, which, when you’re in the rehab process, is easy to say and hard to do. Justin’s done an amazing job. That’s why he’s in a good spot. Let’s just continue to move forward.”
Justin Steele’s 2025 season ended after four starts. He had a 21-10 combined record in the previous two years. (Matt Marton / Imagn Images)
Going faster does not make sense when the Cubs have five projected starters — Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Edward Cabrera and Shota Imanaga — plus Colin Rea available as a swingman who can move into the rotation.
A fully healthy Steele, who underwent Tommy John surgery while a prospect in Chicago’s farm system, also represents too much upside to rush through these stages.
“All of this,” Steele said, “is with the thought in mind that the outings in October and November are going to be the ones that matter the most.”
Steele said he’s already throwing around 35 to 40 pitches during those bullpen sessions in Mesa, meaning he’s looking to increase his workload, continue to stretch out as a starter and advance to live batting practice.
At the beginning of March, the Cubs don’t have to make any decisions about their Opening Day roster. As it stands, the schedule leaves about three weeks before the club may have to make a call on whether Steele should go on the 60-day injured list. That’s a lot of time to gather information and get a better feel for when he might be ready.
“The depth is just amazing this year going into the season,” Steele said, “the amount of starting pitchers that we can roll out there at any given time. We all have that in mind.
“Those outings in October and November mean a lot more, so it’s really important that I’m hitting my stride at that point, and that’s when I’m at my best, because that’s what’s going to help the team the most.”
Without Steele and Horton, the Cubs felt as if they were facing a substantial pitching deficit by the second postseason round last year. The opponent that ended their season, the Milwaukee Brewers, then got swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.
In spring training, Steele is the high-profile example, but this idea will inform how the Cubs handle their pitching staff throughout the 162-game schedule, preparing for the possibility of an extra month of intense competition against the last teams standing.
“You need your best guys at the end,” Counsell said. “You’re going to need your best guys operating at a high level.”