Greg Sankey walked into a back room in the Georgia press box Saturday night, where a television was playing the end of Oklahoma’s upset of Alabama. A result that only bolstered the SEC’s chances to get five teams — maybe more — in the College Football Playoff.
How many teams are you getting in, Sankey was asked?
“I don’t know, it’s not up to me,” he said.
We thought you ran college football, a reporter joked. Maybe half-joked.
“Yeah, back in the day, somebody asked me that: What would be successful? I said seven,” Sankey said, then did the math in his head. Five conference champions, including the SEC. “It would be eight now.”
That has been Sankey’s standard line when stumping for his conference the last couple of years. And he does stump, to the consternation of people outside the SEC but the appreciation of the people within it, which is why the conference pays him handsomely. But this year, there doesn’t need to be much stumping: The teams are arranging things nicely for the conference.
When a bubble team needs a big win, it tends to get it, a la Oklahoma. (Not so much Texas, but you can’t have it all.) And when a team needs to avoid a bad loss, it finds a way, a la Texas A&M. (And yes, we’ll get to the doldrums of South Carolina football at the moment.)
The CFP has created opportunities for more SEC teams. It has also created pressure. That’s reflected in the vibes, where six programs are excited, harboring realistic playoff hopes, but another four have already fired their coaches. And in the middle, you have a mix of angst (again, we’ll get to South Carolina, but also Texas), and nervous planning for next year (hello, Missouri and Tennessee).
These are the SEC vibes rankings, which, as always, are not a pure ranking of how good each team is or its CFP chances. It’s a ranking of the overall feel around the teams and the fan bases, taking into account momentum, hope … or the opposite. Let’s start at the top:
1. Georgia (9-1, 7-1)
Result: Won vs. Texas 35-10
Last week: 3
This week: Charlotte
Playoff spot seemingly ensured. Peaking at the right time. Could get a first-round bye even with missing the SEC championship, which might be the ideal scenario. There was never a question about the talent or the head coach. Now, the rest of college football has to look at how this Georgia team is playing and collectively say: Uh-oh.
2. Oklahoma (8-2, 4-2)
Result: Won at Alabama 23-21
Last week: 7
This week: Missouri
Before the season, three SEC blue bloods hoped to make a jump into Playoff contention: Oklahoma, Florida and Auburn. The latter two failed so badly their coaches are out of work. Brent Venables, however, has the Sooners two wins away — Missouri and then LSU, both at home — from a 10-2 record. That would include wins over Michigan, Tennessee and Alabama (the latter two on the road). It would be hard to keep that resume out of the field.
3. Texas A&M (10-0, 7-0)
Result: Won vs. South Carolina 31-30
Last week: 1
This week: Samford
Should we ding the Aggies for having to make the epic rally from 30-3 down? Maybe, although this being the dreaded 11 a.m. kickoff against a losing opponent, taking until halftime to wake up could be seen a couple of time zones away. The doubts are creeping in, however, the more people look at the quality of SEC teams the Aggies have played. The counter to that had been that the Aggies had demolished those teams. Still, it’s just one game, and if Marcel Reed and company can turn it on like that when they need to, they’re a tough out in the CFP.
4. Vanderbilt (8-2, 4-2)
Result: Bye
Last week: 2
This week: Kentucky
The Commodores sat at home and watched Oklahoma vault them as the most likely fifth SEC team in the Playoff. And that is problematic, because even with wins over Kentucky and at Tennessee, the Dores’ resume would seem weaker: No ranked wins unless Tennessee stays in the top 25, “good” losses at Alabama and Texas, but each of those teams lost Saturday. Vanderbilt may need Sankey to pull that sixth SEC spot.
Then again, the fact we’re even talking about this in regards to Vanderbilt football … perspective.
Ole Miss has a 96 percent chance to reach the Playoff after Saturday’s win, according to The Athletic’s projections. (Justin Ford / Getty Images)
5. Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1)
Result: Won vs. Florida 34-24
Last week: 5
This week: Bye
That was … interesting. Things are still well-positioned for the Rebels. They’re in the CFP, and an Egg Bowl win should get them a home game, and a bye isn’t off the table. But they’re playing with their food down the stretch and should spend this week fixing some kinks rather than jaunting to Tupelo or something like that.
6. Alabama (8-2, 6-1)
Result: Lost to Oklahoma 23-21
Last week: 4
This week: Eastern Illinois
Alabama is what Georgia was until recently: The team that could win the national championship or not even make the Playoff. The better bet would still be the higher extreme, but winning at zombie Auburn is no sure thing, especially given how motivated that program and fan base will be to derail their archrival’s season. And it could indeed derail it, as a three-loss team isn’t making the CFP unless a lot of wild stuff happens.
7. Missouri (7-3, 3-3)
Result: Won vs. Mississippi State 49-27
Last week: 9
This week: at Oklahoma
Ahmad Hardy ran for 300 yards Saturday — not a typo — and it didn’t get much attention because it wasn’t a Playoff-relevant game. Or hot-seat-relevant. Mizzou is one of those teams in the middle, but it also wasn’t expected to be a Playoff team, and the future looks bright as long as it can hold onto its coach.
8. Tennessee (7-3, 3-3)
Result: Won vs. New Mexico State 42-9
Last week: 8
This week: at Florida
The Vols are Mizzou without the coaching rumors. Having a solid season, even without the CFP, which wasn’t make-or-break. Of course, the Vols are coming off a Playoff season, so there will be some grumbling about backsliding. And losing one or both of the final two — at the zombie Gators and to Vanderbilt — would increase the grumbling.
9. Kentucky (5-5, 2-5)
Result: Won vs. Tennessee Tech 42-10
Last week: 12
This week: at Vanderbilt
Speaking of grumbling, are Wildcats fans content with this turn of events? Motivated Mark Stoops and UK are a win from bowl eligibility, which still won’t be easy (Vanderbilt and then Louisville), but QB Cutter Boley, a redshirt freshman, is playing well, and there does seem to be hope. Perhaps those fans who thought it was time for a change — a very fair feeling — are conflicted. Still, it’s better than misery to the point of apathy, which is where things were a few short weeks ago.
At 7-3 and with a game against Texas A&M remaining, Texas faces an uphill battle to reach the CFP. (Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
10. Texas (7-3, 4-2)
Result: Lost at Georgia 35-10
Last week: 6
This week: Arkansas
Steve Sarkisian is 0-5 in the last two seasons against Georgia and Ohio State, and by a combined score of 129-65. Sark definitely has the program in a better place than he found it, but the program aspires to be at the Georgia-Ohio State level, and the showings lately are giving James Franklin-at-Penn State vibes.
11. Auburn (4-6, 1-6)
Result: Bye
Last week: 11
This week: Mercer
The Tigers watched their rival lose, and their fans have the open coaching job to happily speculate about. It’s not the best of times, but not the worst.
12. Mississippi State (5-6, 1-6)
Result: Lost at Missouri 49-27
Last week: 10
This week: Bye
So, yeah, the last couple of weeks have been a definite step back in the competitiveness department. It’ll take an upset of Ole Miss to make a bowl. And yet the season is still a modest step forward for Jeff Lebby’s team. So there’s that at least.
13. LSU (6-4, 3-4)
Result: Won vs. Arkansas 23-22
Last week: 15
This week: Western Kentucky
QB Michael Van Buren Jr. looks … decent? Good? And yet playing at home against another zombie team, the only SEC team still winless in conference, required slogging it out to the end. Maybe the governor can order this team not to go to a bowl, which the Tigers officially qualified for on Saturday. Yay.
14. Florida (3-7, 2-5)
Result: Lost at Ole Miss, 34-24
Last week: 13
This week: Tennessee
Start of the week and game: We want to beat Lane Kiffin so he may be out of the Playoff and we can hire him, but ha ha, that won’t happen.
Halftime of the game: Wait, actually …
End of game: OK, it’s our fault for getting our hopes up. How did Missouri do today?
Arkansas has stayed competitive under Bobby Petrino, playing all five games within single digits, but fell to 0-5 under its interim coach against LSU. (Sean Gardner / Getty Images)
15. Arkansas (2-8, 0-6)
Result: Lost at LSU, 23-22
Last week: 16
This week: at Texas
Bobby Petrino is now 0-5 with those losses by a combined 19 points — no loss by double digits. That would be a mildly compelling argument for keeping the job if it weren’t essentially what Sam Pittman accomplished back in 2020 in his first season, and the program’s goal is to become a contender.
The Hogs should be able to do better, the question is how much better, and now athletic director Hunter Yurachek has the added distraction of being the CFP selection committee chair. Fun times.
16. South Carolina (3-7, 1-7)
Result: Lost at Texas A&M, 31-30
Last week: 14
This week: Coastal Carolina
Woof. Or whatever sounds chickens make when they choke. That was … oy.
Shane Beamer has earned some leeway. He’s coming off a year when South Carolina was two spots out of making the Playoff. Among the Gamecocks’ last six head coaches, only Beamer (32-29) and Steve Spurrier (86-49) are above .500. Gamecock fans can only hope this is a low point, a chance for Beamer to re-assess and make needed changes.
But clearly this is an ebb. And with star QB LaNorris Sellers — who has regressed this season — perhaps gone after this year, fans have a right to be mightily concerned.