College football bowl projections: Teams in the spotlight as postseason picture gets clearer

With one week left until the regular season ends, 72 Football Bowl Subdivision teams have qualified for 82 postseason slots, and 20 others can qualify with a win on the final week of the regular season.

Speculation will swirl for the next two weeks about who deserves what regarding the College Football Playoff, but for now, let’s dive into the details of the teams competing for bowl bids.

This weekend, there are three winner-take-all duels between 5-6 teams for bowl eligibility: Penn State at Rutgers, Georgia Southern at Marshall, and Arkansas State at Appalachian State. Fourteen other five-win teams also have a shot at a bowl game:

• Kentucky (5-6) at Louisville (7-4)
• Alabama (9-2) at Auburn (5-6)
• Ole Miss (10-1) at Mississippi State (5-6)
• Florida State (5-6) at Florida (3-8)
• Kansas (5-6) at Utah (9-2)
• Colorado (3-8) at Kansas State (5-6)
• UCF (5-6) at BYU (10-1)
• Oregon State (2-9) at Washington State (5-6)
• Temple (5-6) at North Texas (10-1)
• Army (5-5) at UTSA (6-5)
• Rice (5-6) at USF (8-3)
• Louisiana (5-6) at Louisiana-Monroe (3-8)
• Texas State (5-6) at South Alabama (4-7)
• Ohio (7-4) at Buffalo (5-6)

If there aren’t enough 6-6 teams, the NCAA will allow teams transitioning from the Football Championship Subdivision to take an available spot. This year, Missouri State (7-4) has become the de facto first alternate. Delaware (5-6) could become a second alternate should it beat UTEP (2-9) at home.

A few evergreen notes:

This is the second season of the 12-team College Football Playoff. The highest-ranked five conference champions plus the top seven at-large teams qualify.

The four highest-ranked teams earn first-round byes. Those teams will play in the Cotton (Dec. 31), Orange (Jan. 1), Rose (Jan. 1) and Sugar (Dec. 31) bowls on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. Teams seeded 5-8 will host seeds 9-12 on Dec. 19-20. Should the Big Ten and SEC champions earn byes, they will play in the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively.

The former Pac-12 schools still fall under the conference’s old agreements. It’s possible to see in-conference matchups in the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday or Sun bowls.

ESPN Events owns the Bahamas Bowl and will move it to a different location, which should be announced this week.

Bowl	Matchup
Playoff Dec. 19, 2025	7 Ole Miss	10 Alabama
Playoff Dec. 20, 2025	6 Oregon	11 SMU
Playoff Dec. 20, 2025	5 Texas Tech	12 North Texas
Playoff Dec. 20, 2025	8 Oklahoma	9 Notre Dame
Cotton Dec. 31, 2025	3 Indiana	Oregon/SMU winner
Orange Jan. 1, 2026	4 Georgia	TxTech/UNT winner
Rose Jan. 1, 2026	1 Ohio State	ND/OU winner
Sugar Jan. 1, 2026	2 Texas A&M	Ole Miss/Bama winner
Fiesta Jan. 8, 2026	QF winner	QF winner
Peach Jan. 9, 2026	QF winner	QF winner
Championship Jan. 19, 2026	SF winner	SF winner

Bowl	Matchup
LA Dec. 13, 2025	Pac-12 6 Arizona	MWC 1 San Diego State
Salute to Veterans Dec. 16, 2025	Sun Belt Troy	MAC Miami (OH)
Cure Dec. 17, 2025	Sun Belt James Madison	G5/Open UConn
68 Ventures Dec. 17, 2025	Sun Belt Louisiana	Open Buffalo
Myrtle Beach Dec. 19, 2025	Sun Belt Old Dominion	Open Kennesaw State
Gasparilla Dec. 19, 2025	SEC/ACC/AAC Florida State	Open USF
Famous Idaho Potato Dec. 22, 2025	MWC Utah State	MAC Marshall
Boca Raton Dec. 23, 2025	Open Coastal Carolina	Open Jacksonville State
New Orleans Dec. 23, 2025	Sun Belt Southern Miss	CUSA Western Kentucky
Frisco Dec. 23, 2025	G5 Texas State	G5 Central Michigan
Hawai’i Dec. 24, 2025	MWC Hawaii	American/Other California
GameAbove Sports Dec. 26, 2025	Big Ten 8 Minnesota	MAC Western Michigan
Rate Dec. 26, 2025	Big Ten 7 Northwestern	Big 12 6 Kansas State
First Responder Dec. 26, 2025	Open Fresno State	Open Arkansas State
Military Dec. 27, 2025	American Navy	ACC 8 Louisville
Pinstripe Dec. 27, 2025	Big Ten 6 Penn State	ACC 5-7 Pittsburgh
Fenway Dec. 27, 2025	ACC 9 Duke	American East Carolina
Arizona Dec. 27, 2025	MWC Boise State	MAC 2 Ohio
Pop-Tarts Dec. 27, 2025	Big 12 3 BYU	ACC 2-4 Virginia
New Mexico Dec. 27, 2025	MWC New Mexico	Open Washington State
Gator Dec. 27, 2025	ACC 2-4 Miami	SEC 3-8 Vanderbilt
Texas Dec. 27, 2025	Big 12 4 Iowa State	SEC 3-8 Missouri
Birmingham Dec. 29, 2025	ACC/SEC/Open Tulane	SEC/ACC/Open NC State
Independence Dec. 30, 2025	Big 12 7 TCU	CUSA/Sun Belt Louisiana Tech
Music City Dec. 30, 2025	Big Ten 5 Illinois	SEC 3-8 LSU
Alamo Dec. 30, 2025	Big 12 2 Houston	Pac-12 2 USC
ReliaQuest Dec. 31, 2025	Big Ten 3 Iowa	SEC 3-8 Texas
Sun Dec. 31, 2025	ACC 5-7 Clemson	Pac-12 5 Arizona State
Citrus Dec. 31, 2025	Big Ten 2 Michigan	SEC 2 Tennessee
Las Vegas Dec. 31, 2025	Pac-12 3 Utah	Big Ten 4 Nebraska
Armed Forces Jan. 2, 2026	Open UNLV	American UTSA
Liberty Jan. 2, 2026	Big 12 5 Cincinnati	SEC 3-8 Memphis
Duke’s Mayo Jan. 2, 2026	SEC 3-8 Kentucky	ACC 5-7 Wake Forest
Holiday Jan. 2, 2026	ACC 2-4 Georgia Tech	Pac-12 4 Washington
Bahamas/TBD undefined NaN, NaN	MAC Toledo	CUSA FIU