Sam Darnold has solidified his standing as the Seattle Seahawks’ franchise quarterback, successfully graduating from a feel-good comeback story into a real asset for a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
But to truly garner respect as one of the league’s top-end QBs, Darnold has to deliver in big moments, and he’ll have the chance to do just that Thursday night against the Los Angeles Rams. The 2018 first-round pick has been on quite the trek to find a solid footing in the NFL, but how far can he take it?
“He is an efficient master of that offense now,” said a team executive, who was granted anonymity so he could speak openly about an opposing player.
It’s symbolic in a way, with the Seahawks hosting the Rams in a virtual winner-take-all affair in the NFC West. The Rams (11-3) own the tiebreaker over the Seahawks (11-3) from their 21-19 victory in Week 11, leaving Seattle desperate to avoid a runner-up finish in the division that would result in a road-heavy path through the postseason.
Darnold would love to help his new team pull off a conference-altering victory as a form of retribution from a season ago, when his career revival with the Minnesota Vikings was soured by a late two-game tailspin, with both games at night in front of a national audience. Though Darnold ultimately landed a three-year, $100.5 million contract in free agency, that closing stretch almost certainly impacted the total value of his deal, along with his public perception as a top-tier QB.
Darnold was a paltry 18-of-41 for 166 yards, with no touchdowns and no turnovers in a 31-9 embarrassment against the Detroit Lions in the final game of the 2024 NFL regular season. As a result, the Lions won the NFC North and clinched the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, while the Vikings plummeted to the fifth seed and were jettisoned off to Los Angeles. The Rams sacked Darnold nine times, took the ball away from him twice and sent the Vikings packing by a 27-9 count.
The stakes this week are practically identical. And although neither the Seahawks nor the Rams can secure the division (or the No. 1 seed) outright on Thursday, a victory would draw them significantly closer. According to our NFL Playoff Simulator, the Seahawks’ chances of winning the West would jump from 27 percent to 52 percent with a victory, while the Rams’ odds would go from 60 to 95 percent.
Darnold has completed a career-best 67.4 percent of his passes this season for 3,433 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The 28-year-old leads the NFL with 8.8 yards per pass attempt and 13.1 yards per completion, which speaks to his explosiveness and efficiency.
Darnold has been a clear upgrade over Geno Smith, who played well for three years as Seattle’s starter before orchestrating an offseason trade to the Las Vegas Raiders over a contract dispute. As proverbial backup plans go, the Seahawks could have done a whole lot worse than swapping out Smith for Darnold, even with the risk of the unknown at the time of the decision.
The Seahawks boosted the acquisition by hiring offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who runs a version of San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan’s system. After floundering with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers for five years, Darnold worked with Kubiak in 2023 when they arrived together in San Francisco. Darnold learned new elements of that system in 2024 with Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, who hails from the Sean McVay tree, so the QB’s growth in the offense has been part of a methodical three-year journey.
The pieces in Seattle fit tightly in place, too. Kubiak and coach Mike Macdonald are aligned with a run-heavy philosophy — the Seahawks have scored the second-most points in the league with the second-fewest pass attempts and fifth-most rush attempts — and Darnold’s selflessness plays perfectly into that.
“The hiring of Kubiak is the best thing Seattle did this offseason,” an executive said.
Darnold’s footwork and eyes have been steady this year, according to a coach who’s studied him. He stays on time with his reads. His accuracy has improved. He has the physicality and athleticism to extend plays and make throws off his spot, especially with the natural arm talent that evaluators have loved since he was the No. 3 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft out of USC. And Darnold has the toughness to command respect in the room.
He absolutely must cut down on his turnovers. Darnold lost a fumble on second-and-goal with 36 seconds remaining of a 17-13 loss to the 49ers in Week 1, and he threw a bad interception with the game tied in the final minute against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who turned the gift into a game-winning field goal at the buzzer in Week 5. He also threw four interceptions in the loss to the Rams.
However, Darnold shook off the picks to lead the Seahawks back in the close loss. At the very least, he showed the Seahawks will keep competing as long as there’s time on the clock.
There’s no more time in the season for moral victories, though. Now, with Darnold and the Seahawks fully into a new era together, it’s time to see how far they can take it.
All 4 naught
It’s been a grind for about a month to find a suitable QB for the No. 5 ranking, which coincides with the Buccaneers’ recent downturn and Baker Mayfield’s limitations due to his own injuries and those around him. Other obvious candidates, such as Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love and Jared Goff, have been too inconsistent to remain in the top five from week to week with any conviction.
Mahomes’ torn ACL exacerbated the problem, now making the fourth spot a tricky area. Again, the rankings are determined by past accomplishments, current performance, future projections and the organizational situation around them, with certain criteria carrying more weight for appropriately deserving players.
The No. 4 spot this week came down to Justin Herbert and Darnold. Their numbers and records are comparable, so the decision came down to this: Which player would you rather have? And since coaches and executives around the NFL still largely view Herbert as the superior player, he got the edge.
And frankly, everyone from Nos. 4-12 received consideration. Dak Prescott, Goff, Love, Mayfield and Burrow all lost their game last week. Jackson played better in a win, but he has been out of sync for most of the last six weeks. Bo Nix continues to improve, but he is still too streaky.
The QB stock report rankings are never reactionary to one week. Of course, the most recent week matters, but no one ever makes a massive rise or fall based on a single game. Herbert jumped seven spots — an admittedly massive rise — but it was a result of his entire body of work, not just a singular performance in a low-scoring win against the Chiefs. And with so much other movement around Herbert, he was the beneficiary of so much uncertainty in the top 10.
Old Man Rivers
Philip Rivers’ season debut with the Colts was uncomfortable at times, but it went better than expected. Rivers finished Sunday 18-of-27 for 120 yards, with one touchdown and a desperation-heave interception, as he led the Colts to a go-ahead field goal in the final minute before they succumbed to the Seattle Seahawks 18-16.
The 44-year-old’s arm strength left plenty to be desired, and his last-gasp interception was a harrowing sign of what’s to come if the Colts find themselves in obvious passing situations over the final three games. But by keeping the game in control, the Colts gave Rivers a chance to play effectively.
Colts coach Shane Steichen had a focused game plan for Rivers, hoping to rely on running back Jonathan Taylor, screens and short passes to have a chance at the upset. And Rivers managed it well, according to an executive who studied the game.
The Colts should be concerned about their ability to keep this strategy intact against the San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans, though. Because the Colts are simply trying to stay alive in the playoff race — where they’re a game behind the Texans after losing five of six — Rivers’ arrival likely yielded a natural injection of energy into the locker room, and that’ll erode after a humbling defeat.
Plus, the Seahawks didn’t play well enough offensively to force the Colts to air it out. If they have to get aggressive against three more challenging opponents that are all just as desperate for wins, the Rivers experiment could get ugly.
To be fair, there had been plenty of potential for it to get ugly in Seattle, and Rivers and the Colts deserve all the credit in the world for giving the Seahawks such a scare. But this challenge will only grow in difficulty from here.
Of Chief concern…
Mahomes’ recovery timeline from a torn ACL will likely dominate much of the offseason discourse, as the ultra-competitive all-time great will surely reach maniacal levels to attempt to be ready for the season opener.
If the Chiefs open the 2026 season on “Monday Night Football,” it’d be nine months to the day since Mahomes injured his left knee — and three days before his 31st birthday. It’s hardly out of the question.
However, as the Chiefs await his return, their offseason approach at the position should be fascinating. Almost unbelievably, they haven’t drafted a single quarterback since taking Mahomes in the first round in 2017. And while it’s easy to dismiss other QBs while employing the best of his generation, it must also be conceded that the Chiefs have been extraordinarily fortunate with Mahomes’ health until now.
While it feels like hindsight or nitpicking to chastise the Chiefs’ unwillingness to draft a QB for eight years — while the Super Bowl jeweler got to know their ring sizes by heart — it’s a real obstacle now. Mahomes won’t be fully healed or fully confident upon his return, so the Chiefs need alternatives in mind, especially if there’s a setback or even an aggravation along the way.
There won’t be many options in free agency, but any available QB should be tripping over himself to sign with the Chiefs, hoping the preseason work or even some regular-season cameos will be enough to draw interest elsewhere, similar to the way Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones resuscitated their careers.
In that sense, Green Bay Packers backup Malik Willis could be the perfect option. He’s played well in two starts and other relief appearances for Love over the past couple of years, and Willis has the talent to be an intriguing fit with coach Andy Reid. Other possibilities might include Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson or Kenny Pickett.
Also, keep in mind, the Chiefs have been eliminated from the playoffs for the first time since 2014, largely because of holes around their roster, which is the result of too many draft misses in recent years. They’re currently set to pick at No. 11, so they’ll have early chances to find impact players at important areas.
Should they continue to go all-in on the rest of the roster and ignore the QBs for the ninth consecutive draft? They don’t need to take one in the first round by any stretch of the imagination, but there will be a lot of unrefined talent in the middle rounds of the upcoming draft. One of those prospects could strike gold with Reid.
Mahomes could return from the injury and look just fine. Tom Brady, of course, also tore his left ACL in his ninth season, in 2008, then became the first unanimous MVP in NFL history in 2010. Good luck finding anyone who’d be shocked if Mahomes quickly returned to the top of his game.
The Chiefs were already heading toward an offseason retooling — “rebuild” is far too strong in this case — and they have to consider developing a quarterback behind Mahomes. This isn’t about finding Mahomes’ successor. It’s about securing a proper insurance policy for Mahomes, as the Chiefs have gotten away without doing so for far too long.