Alex Anthopoulos, the Atlanta Braves’ president of baseball operations, isn’t just playing with fire when it comes to his starting rotation. He’s staring at flames that already are starting to flicker, and risking the Braves’ season going up in smoke.
After spending the entire offseason talking about his desire to add a “playoff starter,” Anthopoulos lost one last Wednesday when Spencer Schwellenbach underwent surgery to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, likely sidelining him for at least several months. Another right-hander, Hurston Waldrep, underwent a similar procedure Monday, costing the Braves, at the very least, additional depth in their rotation.
So, for those keeping score, the Braves are operating at a net negative, down two potential starters when they already were trying to add one. Worse, none of the remaining big four in their rotation – lefty Chris Sale and righties Spencer Strider, Grant Holmes and Reynaldo López – is a portrait of durability. One more injury, and Anthopoulos indeed will be dealing with a five-alarm fire, coming off a 76-86 conflagration that resulted in the Braves’ first failure to make the postseason in his eight years running the club.
Lest anyone forget, this remains a model franchise. Even in the Braves’ current state, Fangraphs projects them to win more games than every team but the Los Angeles Dodgers. Here’s the problem: With superstar right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. under club control only for three more seasons, the Braves should be pushing hard to win the World Series.
And Anthopoulos’ seeming reluctance to address his team’s rotation raises some obvious questions.
Why won’t the Braves sign one of the remaining free-agent right-handed starters, Lucas Giolito or Zack Littell, when they were willing to award Sale, who turns 37 next month, a one-year, $27 million contract extension Tuesday with a $30 million club option for 2028? (Another free-agent righty, Max Scherzer, is more likely to return to the Toronto Blue Jays.)
And why, as the Braves begin a new era with Walt Weiss taking over for Brian Snitker as manager, didn’t Anthopoulos turn more aggressive during the offseason when a number of potential playoff starters were available?
To be fair, those questions seemed far less relevant before Schwellenbach was injured and Waldrep also went down. Also, as often is the case in assessing potential transactions, the answers are not as simple as they might appear.
Anthopoulos generally prefers to jump the market early than beat it late, but the free-agent and trade options weren’t all that appealing. Other pitching-hungry teams are shunning Giolito and Littell, who perhaps fail to clear the bar of a playoff-caliber starter, and might not be significant upgrades for some clubs. Atlanta’s particular hesitance stems in part from a jammed roster that includes two potential starters who are out of options, righty Bryce Elder and lefty Joey Wentz, and currently competing for the fifth spot.
The Braves like both those pitchers. Elder’s average fastball velocity increased during the season, jumping from 91.6 mph in March/April to 93.7 in September. His 2.79 ERA in his last six starts included strong performances against the contending Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers. Wentz’s 5.16 ERA in 13 starts after the All-Star break was less encouraging, but he’s left-handed and his release extension is in the top seven percent of the league. Perhaps new pitching coach Jeremy Hefner can get more out of him.
Still, when pitchers are out of options, it means they have not performed well enough to stick in the majors. Giolito and Littell, on the other hand, are established major-league starters.
Giolito, as first noted by the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, raised his arm angle seven starts into last season, helping him produce a 2.51 ERA in his final 19 starts. Littell, meanwhile, had the lowest walk rate among qualified starters, and his ERA since becoming a full-time starter in July 2023 is 3.66.
Now consider the fragility of the Braves’ current group.
Sale, who won the 2024 National League Cy Young award after Anthopoulos stole him from the Boston Red Sox, is hardly certain to withstand pitching deep into October, if the Braves get that far.
Holmes has a partially torn UCL and partially torn flexor tendon in his right elbow. López missed virtually all of last season with right shoulder inflammation. Strider, two years removed from Tommy John surgery, seemingly has regained the life on his fastball. But his workload, too, likely will require monitoring.
The acquisition of Sale in December 2023 was an example of how Anthopoulos often prefers less obvious – and less expensive – starting pitchers. He tried for an ace, lefty Garrett Crochet, at the 2024 trade deadline, but to beat the Red Sox’s offer he likely would have needed to part with catcher Drake Baldwin, who would become the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year; Waldrep, who impressed last season with a 2.88 ERA in 56 1/3 innings; and another young righty, AJ Smith-Shawver, who underwent Tommy John surgery in June.
The idea of adding a playoff-caliber starter earlier in the offseason, before Schwellenbach got hurt, was to knock López down to the fifth spot. Brandon Woodruff and Sonny Gray were among the pitchers Anthopoulos pursued, according to people briefed on the Braves’ activity. Anthopoulos also checked in on righty Freddy Peralta before the NL East rival New York Mets acquired him from the Milwaukee Brewers. But no deal for a starter came to fruition.
Woodruff, a free agent, would have cost the Braves the 26th pick in the draft if he rejected a qualifying offer from the Brewers. Ultimately, he accepted the one-year, $22.025 million offer to remain in Milwaukee.
For Gray, the St. Louis Cardinals wanted a package that included a major-league ready starter, a request that gave the Braves pause, considering their lack of depth. The Red Sox met the ask, sending right-hander Richard Fitts, along with lefty prospect Brandon Clarke and a player to be named or cash, with the Cardinals including $20 million to offset Gray’s salary.
Peralta, another potential free agent, came at an even steeper cost for the Mets – two top 75 prospects according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, infielder/outfielder Jett Williams and right-hander Brandon Sproat.
With Giolito and Littell, Anthopoulos might simply be waiting for prices to drop. The Braves stayed under the luxury-tax threshold last season, re-setting their status going into 2026. But they currently are carrying the game’s sixth-highest luxury-tax payroll, and are within $4 million of the second threshold, according to Fangraphs. The additional financial penalty might not deter them, but exceeding the second threshold also would move their highest draft selection in 2027 back 10 picks.
The draft penalty might not deter the Braves either, even with Law recently ranking their farm system the fourth worst in the majors. The roster, though, is an issue.
Signing either Giolito or Littell would enable the Braves to open the season with Elder and Wentz in long relief, but the team’s crowded bullpen might have room for only one of them. Losing Elder or Wentz on waivers, a possibility if the Braves want to send either to the minors, would cost Anthopoulos the depth he would be trying to create.
Left-hander Martín Pérez and righty Carlos Carrasco, both of whom signed minor-league contracts, are next in line behind Elder and Wentz. Right-handers JR Ritchie and Didier Fuentes, both of whom cracked some top 100 prospects lists (though not Law’s), also could factor into the picture at some point.
The Braves, mind you, are hardly the only projected contender with rotation concerns. The Phillies currently have Taijuan Walker and the unproven Andrew Painter as their Nos. 4 and 5 starters. Even the defending American League champion Toronto Blue Jays, who built a powerhouse rotation, are seeking more depth as they consider Scherzer. And those are just two examples.
Few teams are immune from pitching attrition. The Braves were in somewhat of a similar position in 2023, when injuries to Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson forced them to open the season with a rotation that included Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, neither of whom was on the 40-man roster.
Elder also was part of that Opening Day rotation. Reliever Michael Tonkin wound up fourth on the team in innings pitched. And the Braves ended up winning 104 games.
The Atlanta offense that season was historically good, leading the majors in runs scored, while the pitching staff ranked only 15th in ERA. The following year, after Anthopoulos added Sale and López, the Braves were first in ERA and 15th in runs. Last season, their offense was again middle of the pack, ranking 13th.
An offensive revival, the kind that would help mask any deficiencies in the rotation, certainly appears possible. Right fielder Acuña Jr. and third baseman Austin Riley are healthy. Second baseman Ozzie Albies and center fielder Michael Harris II can’t be as bad as they were in the first half of last season, and left fielder/DH Jurickson Profar won’t be suspended for the first 80 games. Three free agents – outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, utility man Mauricio Dubón and, once he is healthy, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim – also figure to contribute.
The Braves’ bullpen, anchored by Raisel Iglesias and free-agent addition Robert Suarez, also looks strong. And the rotation quartet of Sale, Strider, Holmes and López, if they avoid lengthy stays on the injured list, could be more than competitive, if not borderline elite.
“We still like the four we have,” Anthopoulos said. “And there’ll be competition for the fifth spot.”
Anthopoulos’ restrained approach might very well turn out to be correct. After seven postseason appearances in eight years, he warrants the benefit of the doubt. But one more injury will turn the Braves’ season ablaze. And if Anthopoulos continues to operate as if the glass is half-full, he won’t have nearly enough water to extinguish the fire.