Isn’t this better?
“Would the Raptors be better off losing this game?” can only yield so many thoughts, all of which come with narrow complexity. Sure, it wasn’t fun for Raptors fans to consider cheering against the Raptors for the last season and a half — we knew that. It also wasn’t interesting.
You can disagree with the moves the Raptors made in the last few years under Masai Ujiri and now Bobby Webster, all while still embracing the moment. The Raptors, from the front office on down, are committed to winning, and we can judge them on those merits. Hallelujah! It’s like a part of my brain has received a jolt of energy after a 22-month slumber.
After Sunday night’s games, the Raptors are 5-5, ranking 10th and 15th in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively. They have the seventh-best net rating in the Eastern Conference. All of that puts them essentially in line with preseason expectations. This early in the season, the how and why are more important than the results, though.
Here are 10 stats that stand out from the Raptors’ first 10 games.
Brandon Ingram is 56.5 percent from between 10 feet and the arc
The Raptors are 39.1 percent from 3
Both of these have buoyed their offence, it’s fair to wonder how sustainable it is.
The Raptors acquired Ingram for his shot-making, and they have to be pleased. He’s averaging 21 points per game on 51 percent shooting, despite hitting 31.7 percent of his 3s. The last time Ingram played close to a full season, in 2023-24, he shot 47.3 percent from between 10 feet and the arc. The year before, he was at 46 percent. In 2021-22, he was at 47.6 percent. This year (56.5) seems like the outlier.
The Raptors have started the year well from 3, despite Immanuel Quickley hitting just a third of his team-leading 59 attempts. The success of Scottie Barnes (45.5 percent on 44 attempts) and (44.4 percent on 27 attempts) makes up for that and more, with their career numbers suggesting they will fall off. That is not guaranteed to happen; young players often improve as shooters as they head into the primes of their careers.
Regardless of how the Raptors shoot in the remaining 72 games, they have definitely hit more of their attempted jumpers than you’d have expected coming into the season. Can the Raptors still score at a decent rate if those numbers revert to their norms?
Raptors are averaging 21.5 fast-break ppg, most in the league
Raptors have a 61.8 effective field-goal percentage in transition, 18th in the league
It was obvious that, even with Ingram, the Raptors’ half-court offence would continue to be a weakness. The easiest way to deal with that is to run as much as possible.
The Raptors are doing that, to massive effect. They are the only team above the 20-point mark per game, with only the Portland Trail Blazers and Miami Heat (wait, what?) within a bucket of them. Mission accomplished.
Well, kind of. The Raptors are only average in their efficiency in transition. They still need to get more organized when running. Against the 76ers on Saturday, Gradey Dick missed a layup in transition, unwisely trying to shoot over Joel Embiid. However, his teammates did not run into space well either, failing to present themselves smartly.
Scoring in transition is a strength for the Raptors. It could be a bigger one.
Raptors’ opponents turn the ball over on 16.4 percent of possessions, seventh-most in the league
Raptors are third in deflections per game and 16th in steals per game
This is a bit of a wonder. First, the undeniably good: The Raptors are causing a bunch of turnovers, which is a big reason they have emphasized ball pressure so much. Jakob Poeltl is the Raptors’ only true big man, and he is not an elite rim-protector. Also, he has been injured. If the Raptors played a safe defence, they would probably get torched in the paint, as has happened a few times already. At least, then, they are limiting those opportunities.
Getting your hands on the ball is necessary, most of the time, to create a turnover, and the Raptors are very good at that. They are averaging 23.8 deflections per game, with Scottie Barnes leading all full-time forwards with 4.6 per game. (Rookie Collin Murray-Boyles is deflecting the ball at virtually the same per-minute rate as Barnes.) However, unlike most teams that deflect the ball as often as the Raptors do, they are not in the top half of the league in steals.
It is unusual. Over the course of a season, you would expect those two numbers to get closer. It feels like deflections are more static than steals, so the steals should go up — giving the Raptors even more opportunities to score on the break. That cannot be guaranteed.
Raptors’ opponents rebound 33.2 percent of their misses, sixth-most in the NBA
It’s not just that the Raptors are getting handled on their own glass; it’s also that they aren’t making up for it on the other end, like they have in other years. Only Atlanta, Milwaukee, Dallas and Miami have bigger negative differentials between their offensive rebounding percentage and their opponents’.
No complicated math is required to explain why that is bad. The Raptors have turned the ball over on just 14 percent of their possessions, giving them an advantage over their opponents. But they are giving those possessions, and then some, right back to their opponents on the glass.
RJ Barrett has a 65.2 true-shooting percentage
This doesn’t get at a wider team trend. It is just awesome.
Barrett’s scoring efficiency has been a problem throughout his career. Aside from his 2023-24 season, when he was traded from New York to Toronto, he has never finished with a true shooting percentage, which accounts for the added value of 3s and free-throw attempts, above 54.7 — a very pedestrian number.
He is in rare territory to start this year. He is just shy of peak Steph Curry efficiency (not that he is doing it in the same way). Barrett has hit almost 40 percent of his 53 3s to start the year. He also leads the team in free-throw attempts, although he is getting to the line a little less frequently than years past — not a surprise with Ingram in town soaking up a larger share of offensive possessions.
As an added bonus, he is shooting 75.6 percent from the line, a nice start as he looks to put last year’s 63 percent oddity behind him.
5 best total plus-minuses belong to Gradey Dick, Jamison Battle, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jamal Shead and Ochai Agbaji
Not all of these Raptors reserves have been excellent, although Mamukelashvili and Shead deserve their props. They have been very good in making sure the Raptors reliably win their non-starter minutes. Beyond hitting 3s, Mamukelashvili has is a versatile defender, making up for the team’s lack of paint protection. Shead has been awesome across the board.
Alas, it’s not what you want if you’re trying to be a good team. The Raptors’ starters, who have played 78 minutes together, have a net rating of minus-8.3, getting roasted defensively. With Murray-Boyles in Poeltl’s place, that number drops to minus-22.1 in 39 minutes.
Forget about who is playing center. The Raptors have been outscored by 32 points in the 160 minutes Barnes, Barrett, Ingram and Quickley have been on the floor. In fact, the Raptors’ nine most commonly used quartets, all of which feature at least three of those players, have been net negatives.
It’s far too early for a change for the starters, especially with Poeltl compromised. Still, head coach Darko Rajaković has some experimenting to do.
The Raptors have played 10 ‘clutch’ minutes, tied for 24th
And really, you can learn only so much until they have some more high-stress minutes to work through.