LAS VEGAS — As one agent at the 2025 general manager meetings put it, the Toronto Blue Jays are expected to “be quite aggressive” this offseason. For a Jays team that consistently checks in on free agency’s biggest fish and enters the trade market, that sentiment isn’t necessarily new. That prediction, or something similar, seemingly arrives each fall for the Blue Jays.
However, with the Jays riding the high of a World Series appearance and with more than $50 million in payroll coming off the books, Toronto is undeniably one of the meetings’ central talking points.
With notes on potential bullpen targets, rotation plans and 2026 payroll and free agency’s biggest bats, here are some notes from the baseball offseason’s first major event:
The big bats of free agency
Kyle Tucker and longtime Toronto shortstop Bo Bichette are two of the top hitters in this year’s free agent class. Just days into the offseason, the Jays have already been publicly connected to both. With clear holes in pitching, though, they may not be Toronto’s top priorities this winter.
The Jays finished fourth in runs scored in 2025, averaging 4.93 per game. In 31 games between Bichette’s Sept. 6 knee sprain and his return in the World Series, the Jays averaged 5.06 runs. It’s a small sample, no doubt, but Toronto’s offensive success this year wasn’t entirely contingent on one bat.
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins, at his season-ending news conference, said the Jays will be in Bichette’s market. The Jays, too, will likely hover around Tucker to see where his price ends up. At least for Tucker, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, which both holes in their outfields, appear more obvious landing spots.
Toronto’s biggest needs, and where it may end up spending the most money and prospect resources this winter, come on the other side of the ball.
Rotation uncertainty and top-of-market targets
If the Jays do focus on pitching, a significant starter appears as an obvious play. The Jays, a league source said, are interested in players at the top of the rotation market. That’s a group that should include Dylan Cease, Ranger Suárez, Framber Valdez and potentially Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai. According to contract projections from The Athletic’s Tim Britton, all four of those pitchers are expected to receive at least six-year contracts worth over $150 million.
There could be room for multiple starting additions, though. The Jays have veteran Kevin Gausman pencilled into the rotation. He is basically the one certainty. Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and José Berríos will be in the mix behind Gausman, but they all come with some sort of question mark.
WELCOME BACK, BIEBS!
OFFICIAL: RHP Shane Bieber has exercised his player option for the 2026 season. pic.twitter.com/p9DEFD1InE
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) November 5, 2025
Bieber, though extremely effective during Toronto’s World Series push, is still only 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery. As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported, executives wonder if he opted into a seemingly discounted $16 million deal with the Jays due to questions about his arm health. Yesavage, also brilliant in the postseason, will likely have his workload monitored next year after a significant innings jump in 2024. Berríos, after injuries and poor performance cost him a spot in the rotation late in the year, must earn back trust to stick in the rotation.
Even though one big starting pitching signing could give the Jays five starting options, there are enough unknowns there to warrant another addition. Maybe another swingman type, on top of Eric Lauer, is the perfect solution. After proving his effectiveness as both a starter and reliever in 2025, that could be the avenue for Chris Bassitt’s return.
The bullpen is full, but it isn’t complete
The Jays seemingly have 10 or 11 big league relief options already on the roster, without counting potential prospect conversion candidates like Ricky Tiedemann or Adam Macko. Still, that full bullpen doesn’t mean the Jays won’t add a reliever this winter. With depth to spare, the Jays could trade from their glut of relief and still raise the group’s ceiling with a significant trade or signing.
The Jays and Dodgers, as Rosenthal wrote, are interested in former Tampa Bay Rays closer Pete Fairbanks. Other players in a similar tier to Fairbanks who could fill Toronto’s late-inning needs are Phil Maton and Tyler Kinley.
That pair may not bring the same name recognition as Edwin Diaz or Devin Williams, but Maton posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.60 FIP last year with the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers, while Kinley posted a 0.72 ERA and 2.74 FIP after a deadline trade to the Atlanta Braves.
For a Jays front office that hasn’t handed out a reliever contract worth more than $35 million, adding a top-of-market closer would be uncharacteristic. Jeff Hoffman has been the only exception during Atkins’ tenure. Maton, Fairbanks, Kinley or other similar options could provide similar production to an elite closer at a fraction of the cost. That’s more the kind of bullpen move the Jays are known to make.
How deep October run impacts Blue Jays payroll
After a deep and lucrative run to the World Series this year, the Jays should have no problem matching a payroll that ranked fifth in baseball in 2024. President Mark Shapiro, at his end-of-year news conference, essentially confirmed it.
“We’ve had an unprecedented level of support,” Shapiro said. “And I don’t see that support going backwards at all.”
The Jays do have over $50 million coming off the books with Bichette, Bassitt and Max Scherzer heading to free agency. If the Jays were to maintain a similar payroll to Opening Day 2024, at least part of that budget room will be offset by raises for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shane Bieber and arbitration-eligible players like Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement. If the Jays are going to add significant contracts this winter, their budget may need to rise even higher.
One former Blue Jays executive, who spoke alongside other National League general managers on Tuesday, is very familiar with how Toronto’s ownership functions when winning is possible. Alex Anthopolous, who left the team after a run to the ALCS in 2015, spoke on owner Edward Rogers’ desire to win.
“There was no doubt,” Anthopoulos said, “With Paul [Beeston] leaving, I was talking to Edward Rogers, he was very committed to winning and putting a winning team on the field. It was important to him. There was no doubt.”
Falling two outs short in Game 7 of winning the World Series, the Jays have never come this close to a title under Rogers’ ownership. The moves the Jays will make this winter are a chance for Toronto to go from close to complete.