Are Fabian Hurzeler’s substitutions a plus for Brighton, or too much tinkering?

Fabian Hurzeler’s decision to take off Carlos Baleba in the 81st minute of Brighton & Hove Albion’s recent 2-1 defeat at Fulham did not go down well with fans in the away end, with some booing the change.

It did not help the head coach’s cause when, not long after Baleba had been replaced by James Milner with the scores level, Fulham’s Harry Wilson struck a late winner from a free kick. Hurzeler later provided context for the change, revealing that Baleba had told the bench he felt exhausted.

A week later, Milner was brought on for goalscorer Pascal Gross in the 89th minute with Hurzeler’s side 1-0 up against Everton at the Amex Stadium, only for substitute Beto to snatch a 97th-minute equaliser for the visitors.

Hurzeler’s substitutions have been scrutinised during a run of one win in 13 league games, which has seen his side drop from fifth in the table at the start of December to 14th, seven points above the relegation zone.

It has even been suggested that the motivation for introducing Milner in the closing stages of matches is to help him break Gareth Barry’s record of 653 Premier League appearances, rather than utilising the 40-year-old’s high-level experience in the hope of seeing out positive results.

Milner equalled Barry’s mark against one of his former clubs when he replaced Baleba in the 22nd minute of last week’s 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa — and he will break it if he plays a part at Brentford on Saturday. There was no dissent from away fans over that decision, because Baleba had been booked in the second minute for a challenge on Morgan Rogers. Hurzeler did not want to run the risk of the Cameroon midfielder getting a red card from referee Peter Bankes.

According to figures supplied by Opta, that was one of only 62 first-half substitutions made by Premier League managers this season, compared to 2,091 in the second half of games. Hurzeler has also hooked Baleba at half-time on four occasions for tactical and performance reasons.

The German regularly makes multiple changes. In fact, he has tinkered more often this season than any other Premier League manager. Hurzeler tops the list of substitutions made by Premier League managers this season (see table below) with 123. That is two more than Fulham’s Marco Silva, four higher than Unai Emery (Villa) and Andoni Iraola (Bournemouth).

Changes are not made for the sake of it. They are sometimes based on information and data from fitness staff before or during a match. Jan Paul van Hecke played for 61 minutes at Villa after the influential central defender missed the preceding 1-0 home loss against Crystal Palace with a hamstring injury. “We knew that he couldn’t play for 90 minutes, so that was normal procedure,” Hurzeler said after the Villa game.

“We had to take him out after 60-65, that was the maximum playing time he was capable of doing.”

Other external factors can also come into play. Personal issues for players affecting family members, for example, might have an impact on performance. Hurzeler and his staff have a broader picture than supporters (or media), who, for obvious reasons, are not privy to that type of information.

“You have ongoing talks, especially before the game, about the fitness of individual players, who is capable of playing 90 minutes, who might need a modification regarding game minutes,” Hurzeler told The Athletic before Saturday’s 3-0 defeat against Liverpool in the fourth round of the FA Cup at Anfield, where he made five substitutions in 19 minutes from the 62nd minute.

“That is the first reason to make subs. Then you have players who can play in two or three positions, so you try to get an understanding before the game of plan A or B, if this happens as an option for making a sub. That is the second reason.”

Charalampos Kostoulas came off the bench to score a superb goal vs Bournemouth (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

“The third reason is how the game is going. So, getting an understanding of what our match plan is, whether the match plan is working, and reacting to a change from the opponent. It is an ongoing process during the game. Does their formation change? Are they bringing on a left-footed player on the right side, a right-footed player on the left, a fast player, a slow player?

“Data nowadays is getting more and more important. We are capable of really checking the players during the game, of knowing how much they run, how much high-speed distance they do, and how much sprint distance they do. It’s not an input we always use, but it’s an input we have. Then we have an ongoing exchange on the bench, talking to my assistant coaches, figuring out what is best regarding keeping the momentum or changing the momentum. With these conversations, we try to make the best decisions.”

Baleba’s withdrawals at half-time are a pattern repeated elsewhere. Easily the most popular time for Premier League managers to make substitutions this season is the 45th minute (153 occasions), which suggests a high volume of game plan revisions. The next-highest is the 79th minute (79), followed by the 84th minute (74).

Hurzeler made a triple substitution in the 84th minute — which included bringing on Baleba — in Brighton’s last away league win at Nottingham Forest in November. They were 1-0 up when he made the changes, and they went on to win 2-0.

So, how is Hurzeler faring overall on the impact of his subs? Charalampos Kostoulas came off the bench after 77 minutes to score a spectacular equaliser with an overhead kick in the 90th minute of the 1-1 home draw against Bournemouth in January. Eight goals have been contributed by substitutes made by Hurzeler. That is the joint most with Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta and Scott Parker (Burnley).

Substitutes have been responsible for 23.5 per cent of Brighton’s goals (eight of 34). That gives Hurzeler the highest percentage impact apart from Parker’s 28.6 per cent (eight of 28). Although Arteta has numerical equality, substitutes have scored 16 per cent of the goals for the league leaders (eight of 50).

Hurzeler needs a win from somewhere to ease mounting focus on his position. Brighton face home games in March against Forest, Arsenal and Liverpool, plus a trip to Sunderland.

February has been miserable so far: three defeats and no goals. Hurzeler needs a turning point. Perhaps the final fixture of the month at thriving Brentford can provide it, with substitutes coming to the rescue again. His side were 1-0 down at the break when the teams met at the Amex in November. Hurzeler made five second-half changes, including two at half-time and Jack Hinshelwood after 70 minutes. Danny Welbeck equalised a minute later and Hinshelwood scored in the 84th minute to secure a 2-1 victory.