Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
HAMNET, from left: Jacobi Jupe, Bodhi Rae Breathnach, Olivia Lynes, 2025. ph: Agata Grzybowska /© Focus Features /Courtesy Everett Collection
©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Nov. 11, 2025): As the regional fall festival circuit winds down, one thing is abundantly clear: the crowdpleasers are showing themselves — and one of them is undoubtedly “Hamnet.”
Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel has picked up seven big audience awards to date, including major wins at the Toronto International Film Festival, San Diego, Virginia, Mill Valley, Middleburg, Valladolid and the BFI London Film Festival. Few films in recent memory have generated this kind of sustained affection from festivalgoers across continents.
But the bigger question is what that affection means for Oscar season. “Hamnet” looks destined for an awards-season tug-of-war with Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” which also shows no signs of slowing. Beyond those two juggernauts, only a handful of other contenders — like Ryan Coogler’s gothic horror film “Sinners” and perhaps Josh Safdie’s high-octane sports film “Marty Supreme” — could spark passion among industry voters.
Elsewhere, Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” and Hikari’s “Rental Family” have each picked up their share of regional honors. “Frankenstein” claimed the top prize at the SCAD Savannah Film Festival, while “Rental Family” tied with “Hamnet” at Middleburg and earned runner-up status at SCAD.
Let’s see where it all ultimately settles.
This week’s updates are below, and the first official charts for international feature, documentary feature and cinematography have been released.
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (14); “Sinners” (13); “Hamnet” (12); “Wicked: For Good” (10); “Sentimental Value” (7)
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (31); Netflix (18); Focus Features (16); Neon (13); A24 (7)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
-
Best Picture
Image Credit: “Sentimental Value” (Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival) “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) -
Director
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sanfic Paul Thomas Anderson ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Joachim Trier
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) -
Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics Timothée Chalamet
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke ***
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) -
Actress
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features Benicio del Toro
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
William H. Macy
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Regina Hall
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Emily Watson
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: A24 “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Robert Kaplow
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of John Wilson/Netflix “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Will Tracy
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story” (Netflix)
Rian Johnson -
Casting
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Cassandra Kulukundis
“Rental Family” (Searchlight Pictures)
Kei Kawamura and Yumi Takada
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine MaislerOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
-
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Disney Animation “Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
-
Production Design
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection “Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jack Fisk, Adam Willis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Nathan Crowley, Lee SandalesOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
-
Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Dan Laustsen
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Łukasz Żal
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho Veloso -
Costume Design
Image Credit: Searchlight “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ruth E. Carter
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Malgorzata Karpiuk
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
-
Film Editing
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andy Jurgensen
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. Shawver
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Myron KersteinOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
-
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Mike Hill
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Siân Richards, Shunika Terry
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Felix Fox, Kazu Hiro, Mia Neal
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Jason Collins, Leo Satkovick, Melizah Wheat
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Laura Blount, Frances Hannon, Sarah NuthOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
-
Sound
Image Credit: 20th Century Studios “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
Brent Burge, Melanie Graham, Michael Hedges, Gary Summers
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Luke Dunn Gielmuda, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflor
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Steve Boeddeker, Benny Burt, David V. Butler, Brandon Proctor, Chris Welcker
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Jack Dolman, Simon Hayes, John Marquis, Andy Nelson, Nancy Nugent TitleOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
-
Visual Effects
Image Credit: Courtesy of Everett Collection “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
-
Original Score
Image Credit: Atsushi Nishijima/Focus Features “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Jerskin Fendrix
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig GöranssonOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
-
Original Song
Image Credit: Greenwich Entertainment “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Dear Me” by Diane Warren
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Clothed by the Sun” by Daniel Blumberg
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“The Girl in the Bubble” by Stephen SchwartzOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
-
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
Andrew Jarecki, Charlotte Kaufman
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, Ryan White, Stef Willen
“Cover-Up” (Netflix)
Yoni Golijov, Mark Obenhaus, Laura Poitras, Olivia Streisand
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
Sam Bisbeem Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
Raney Aronson, Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner -
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
dir. Jafar Panahi
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
dir. Park-Chan wook
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
dir. Joachim Trier
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
dir. Kaouther Ben HaniaOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon