Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
SINNERS, Li Jun Li, 2025. © Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
Oscars Best Cinematography Commentary (Updated Nov. 11, 2025): The men and women behind the lens are showing this will be one of the most competitive races at the Oscars ceremony.
For the first time in Oscars history, the best cinematography category will utilize a shortlist. The Cinematographers Branch will announce between 10 and 20 titles for consideration. Voting for all shortlist categories — which now include casting, sound, visual effects, makeup and hairstyling, documentary feature, international feature, and all three shorts — will run from Dec. 8–12.
Leading the pack — and the conversation — is Autumn Durald Arkapaw, whose luminous work on “Sinners” bathes every frame in unease and tragic beauty. Set in the 1930s, the film’s glow evokes a timeless sense of dread and longing. Known for her dazzling compositions in “Teen Spirit” and her Emmy-nominated work on TV’s “Loki,” Arkapaw may be on the verge of making history. Only three women have ever been nominated in this category: Rachel Morrison (“Mudbound”), Ari Wegner (“The Power of the Dog”), and Mandy Walker (“Elvis”). Skeptics often wonder whether we’ll ever see a woman win best cinematography in our lifetime. After watching “Sinners,” I’m inclined to believe the answer might finally be yes.
Several overdue names are hoping to gain traction this season.
Dan Laustsen’s lush, gothic camera work in Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” continues to build momentum. Having earned previous nominations for Del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” (2017) and “Nightmare Alley” (2021), Laustsen remains a clear contender, and overdue for some Oscar love.
Another strong bet is Polish master Łukasz Żal, whose collaboration with Chloé Zhao on the emotionally moving “Hamnet” delivers some of the year’s most striking imagery. A two-time nominee for black-and-white gems “Ida” (2014) and “Cold War” (2018), Żal’s embrace of color here — and his ability to hold a moment, asking the audience to sit with it — adds layers of depth to an already devastating story.
This season is sure to welcome a few exciting newcomers.
Adolpho Veloso’s camera work in Clint Bentley’s “Train Dreams” channels the quiet majesty of Terrence Malick and Bruno Delbonnel, pairing natural light with meditative pacing. Then there’s Michael Bauman, a rising name in the field. While he’s served as a longtime collaborator with Paul Thomas Anderson previously, including on “Licorice Pizza” (2021), Bauman is now stepping into the spotlight with “One Battle After Another.” He’s primed for his first official bid, especially with the film emerging as a major awards frontrunner.
Nominations voting will take place from Monday, Jan. 12, through Friday, Jan. 16. Final nominees will be revealed Thursday, Jan. 22. Final voting begins Wednesday, Feb. 26, and closes on Wednesday, March 5.
NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed and credited artisans are subject to change.
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