Selection Sunday is less than a month away and the best teams in college basketball are battling for conference titles and strong seeds in the NCAA Tournament. A season loaded with compelling favorites and plenty of star power could make for a memorable March.
The Michigan Wolverines are the new consensus betting favorite to win the national championship thanks to Arizona’s first two losses of the season.
Even after prolific starts, Michigan and Arizona face plenty of strong competition. Duke and Houston also find themselves prominently in the title discussion. A deep and talented group of national title contenders consists of programs who could ascend before the bracket is even unveiled. Iowa State just used a little Hilton Magic to knock off Houston. Illinois, Florida and UConn are also among a handful of teams showing dangerous signs of deep tournament runs.
There’s plenty of intrigue in a wide-open national championship picture.
Michigan takes over top spot from Arizona
Michigan emerged as the new favorite in the midst of an impressive 11-game winning streak. Since its surprising home loss to Wisconsin on Jan. 10, the Wolverines’ only loss this season, Michigan has piled up 10 double-digit wins in this current streak, including Tuesday night’s decisive road win over the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue is also among the top 10 betting favorites, ranging from +1900 on BetMGM to +3000 on FanDuel.
Michigan, tops in the AP poll for the first time since 2013, owns five double-digit wins over top-25 teams this season — three of them by 30 or more points. Regularly dismantling quality competition thanks to its ridiculous balance, the Wolverines are strongly-positioned for a No. 1 seed while comfortably leading the Big Ten by two games.
Previously in the top spot, Arizona (+450 on BetMGM, +500 on DraftKings and +600 on FanDuel) dropped slightly following its first two losses of the season. Arizona fell to the Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Tech Red Raiders last week in a pair of tight Big 12 battles. Blowing a late lead at home in an overtime loss to Texas Tech raises some red flags about Arizona’s ability to close out games against quality competition. After the 23-0 start, however, the Wildcats already built up the profile of a strong No. 1 seed.
Both Michigan and Arizona receive stiff tests from the other two national title favorites this weekend. The Duke Blue Devils, third in the odds at the major sportsbooks, battle Michigan in Washington D.C. while Arizona hits the road to face the Houston Cougars (+750 or +800 depending on where you look) in a pivotal Big 12 clash.
Duke is cruising through the ACC relatively unscathed thanks in-part to the stellar play of Wooden Award favorite Cameron Boozer. Saturday’s uncommon February nonconference matchup against the Wolverines gives Duke a top-three national showcase after the recent last-second road loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Houston sits fourth in national title odds despite its recent road loss to Iowa State. Hosting Arizona delivers massive implications in a competitive Big 12 race that still also prominently features Iowa State and Kansas. Houston and Arizona are tied for the conference lead with Iowa State and Kansas one loss behind.
Iowa State among other intriguing contenders
The Iowa State Cyclones jumped into a tight mix for fifth in the odds after Monday’s win against Houston. The Cyclones, Florida, Illinois and UConn are jumbled in various orders depending on the book you’re looking at. Following Saturday’s blowout win against Kansas, the Cyclones are riding high after back-to-back top-ten wins.
Iowa State still faces three top-25 opponents in its final five regular season games, including top-15 tilts against Texas Tech and Arizona in a three-day span. If the Cyclones can continue to win marquee matchups, they have a strong case building for a potential top seed.
Illinois is navigating a difficult Big Ten stretch without top defender Kylan Boswell. Illinois also hosts Michigan on Feb. 27 in perhaps will be its final opportunity to stay in the Big Ten race.
Defending champion Florida is regaining its swagger after a sluggish start to the season. Now on a six-game winning streak, Florida possesses its strongest title odds of the year after previously dipping to +2500 in January.
Counting out the Connecticut Huskies wouldn’t be wise. UConn doesn’t have much competition in the Big East outside of the St. John’s Red Storm. Known for peaking in March, UConn is a program to keep tabs on over the next several weeks before its St. John’s rematch on Feb. 25.
Below that group, Purdue’s title credibility was tarnished by a three-game slide in January. Getting soundly outplayed by Michigan at home on Tuesday night won’t help that perception. After elevating to +750 odds as national championship favorites on BetMGM at the start of the regular season, Purdue now sits ninth among title contenders.
The loaded Big 12 offers five of the top 11 national title contenders with Kansas and Texas Tech both firmly in the mix along with Arizona, Houston and Iowa State. Both teams knocked off Arizona last week to see small rises in their national title odds.
Uncertainty remains for Kansas’ long-term outlook thanks to the cloudy injury picture of superstar freshman guard Darryn Peterson. Even without Peterson, the Jayhawks are plenty dangerous. Kansas knocked off the Wildcats without their most talented player just last week. If Peterson is available, however, Kansas has the talent for another deep tournament run.
The most puzzling contender is undoubtedly Texas Tech. The Red Raiders own a strong trio of wins over title favorites Arizona, Duke and Houston. Texas Tech is also inconsistent enough for bad losses like its most recent game against Arizona State. Which version of the Red Raiders will show up in March? Texas Tech nearly toppled Florida in the Elite Eight last season.