2026 Golden Globes Predictions in Every Category


Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming OscarsEmmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

THE SECRET AGENT, (aka O AGENTE SECRETO), Wagner Moura, 2025. © Neon /Courtesy Everett Collection

Courtesy Everett Collection

Golden Globes Awards Commentary (Updated: Dec. 5, 2025): Up is down, left is right, and — somehow — the Golden Globes’ comedy races are far more competitive than their drama counterparts. The unpredictability of this awards season continues to defy precedent.

On the film side, the Globes are looking to be one of the most volatile stops on the circuit. But this year brings a twist few saw coming: the comedy/musical categories are suddenly more stacked, prestigious and aggressively contested than the drama races, overturning long-held assumptions about Hollywood’s “fun” categories.

Traditionally, the Globes’ comedy/musical fields were where lighter crowd-pleasers or less awards-centric films found a comfortable landing — think “Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason.” The drama races, by contrast, were reserved for the big Oscar hopefuls. Not this year.

Leading the genre shift is Universal’s “Wicked: For Good,” which has dominated the box office and reviews, placing it in a heated three-way matchup with Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” and A24’s “Marty Supreme.” In Josh Safdie’s ping-pong dramedy, Timothée Chalamet finds himself in prime position for his first Globe win — if he can fend off fellow heavyweights such as Leonardo DiCaprio (in “One Battle After Another”), George Clooney (“Jay Kelly”) and a resurgent Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”).

Yorgos Lanthimos continues his blistering Globes momentum with Focus Features’ “Bugonia,” following previous nominations for “Poor Things” and “The Favourite.” Stars Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons are poised to make strong bids in the acting races. Add to that Rian Johnson’s “Wake Up Dead Man,” the third entry in the “Knives Out” franchise and Park Chan-wook’s South Korean dark dramedy “No Other Choice” and the comedy/musical field becomes even tighter.

With six nominees per category — and eight for the Globes’ box office and cinematic achievement race — the competition remains fierce from top to bottom.

In lead actress (comedy/musical), Cynthia Erivo emerges as the clear front-runner for returning as Elphaba in Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked: For Good.” Her co-star Ariana Grande is also a major player in supporting actress. Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”), Chase Infiniti (“One Battle”), Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”) and Amanda Seyfried (“The Testament of Ann Lee”) are all vying for the remaining spots, with Dakota Johnson (“Materialists”), Pamela Anderson (“The Naked Gun”) and Globe darling Olivia Colman (“The Roses”) looking for an opportunity to sneak in.

On the lead actor side, Chalamet may have the edge — he’s earned four Globe acting nominations already. But DiCaprio — already a three-time Globe winner — remains a formidable challenger for “One Battle After Another.” Plemons continues to rise with “Bugonia,” and veterans Clooney, Hawke and Daniel Craig (“Wake Up Dead Man”) aim to secure the remaining slots. And there’s another musical in the mix: the filmed version of the Broadway production of “Merrily We Roll Along,” which is eligible for Globes, but not Oscars.

Still, the drama categories remain prestigious, even if more settled. “Sinners” leads the dramatic field, with “Hamnet” and “Sentimental Value” close behind. The latter has a surefire contender with Stellan Skarsgård looking to embark on the road to the Oscar. In drama actress, his co-star Renate Reinsve looks to take on Jessie Buckley, a locked and loaded contender for “Hamnet.”

“Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan looks strong in drama actor, bolstered by the film’s overall chances and, hopefully, Ryan Coogler’s directing and screenplay bids.

A compelling subplot comes from Brazil’s Wagner Moura in the thriller “The Secret Agent.” The “Narcos” star could mirror last year’s breakout Fernanda Torres, who won for “I’m Still Here” and then scored a surprise Oscar nomination. That film even landed a best picture nod, raising the question: Can “The Secret Agent” continue Latin American cinema’s award-season surge?

As voting begins, the comedy/musical categories’ rise mirrors a broader realignment in Hollywood’s awards landscape. No longer the Globes’ consolation bracket, these races now contain some of the season’s most exciting contenders — and genuine Oscar hopefuls. Which film will pack the hardest punch?

The final Golden Globes predictions in film and TV are below.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)


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